or


[09/26/12 - 04:33 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 3: Scripted and Unscripted Shows Fail at the Same Rate
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

3. Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.

If you've been following this feature for the past few days the above shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), the 608 scripted ones made it to second seasons just as often as the 284 unscripted ones: 32% of the time.


genreabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
all scripted46/146 (32%)42/103 (41%)33/112 (29%)37/136 (27%)11/36 (31%)18/53 (34%)1/6 (17%)196/608 (32%)
all unscripted25/85 (29%)9/27 (33%)21/60 (35%)29/71 (41%)1/12 (8%)6/14 (43%)0/9 (0%)92/284 (32%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


However, when you filter those scripted and unscripted shows into distinct genres, a slightly different picture is painted:


genreabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
comedy (animated)0/2 (0%)0/1 (0%)3/6 (50%)0/3 (0%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)4/17 (24%)
comedy (improv-sketch)2/4 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/7 (0%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)2/5 (40%)0/0 (0%)6/24 (25%)
comedy (multi-camera)10/34 (29%)12/32 (38%)6/20 (30%)5/29 (17%)7/15 (47%)5/14 (36%)1/1 (100%)46/145 (32%)
comedy (single-camera)11/23 (48%)0/4 (0%)9/22 (41%)8/22 (36%)1/3 (33%)0/7 (0%)0/2 (0%)29/83 (35%)
drama23/83 (28%)30/66 (45%)15/57 (26%)22/74 (30%)3/16 (19%)10/24 (42%)8/19 (42%)111/339 (33%)
reality (competition)16/46 (35%)7/20 (35%)13/40 (33%)23/58 (40%)1/7 (14%)3/10 (30%)1/6 (17%)64/187 (34%)
reality (non-competition)9/39 (23%)2/7 (29%)8/20 (40%)6/13 (46%)0/5 (0%)3/4 (75%)0/9 (0%)28/97 (29%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


The above tells us that animation on the broadcast networks provides the longest odds: just four series in the past 13 years made it to second seasons, none of which came from ABC, CBS or NBC. On the flip side, single-camera comedies have the best survival rate - albeit by only one percentage point over competition series and two over dramas.

As always, the more telling aspects come from the networks themselves. CBS hasn't given a second season to a single-camera comedy in the past 13 years while ABC has brought back nearly half (48%) of theirs. Conversely, CBS has renewed 45% of its freshman dramas - the best of any network - while ABC's hour-long newcomers only return 28% of the time. Also on interest: ABC and CBS's reality competition series do significantly better than their non-competition ones whereas FOX and NBC are the opposite when it comes to their unscripted offerings.

Likewise, until today's renewal of "Breaking Pointe" (series from this past summer aren't factored into the above as many of their fates are still up in the air), The CW had yet to renew any of its non-competition reality series.

All in all, while shows in general fail at the same rate there are some ebbs and flows to specific genres and on specific networks.

PREVIOUSLY: Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

TOMORROW: Do certain nights of the week fare better than others?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[11/25/24 - 02:49 PM]
Hallmark's Critically Acclaimed, Hit Series "The Way Home" Jumps Back Into the Pond When Season 3 Premieres January 2, Exclusively on Hallmark+
Season three picks up where season two left off - with Kat (Chyler Leigh) and her brother Jacob (Spencer Macpherson), who went missing more than two decades ago at the age of eight and is now an adult, poised to walk into the Landry home to an unsuspecting Del (Andie MacDowell).

[11/25/24 - 12:30 PM]
"The Curious Case of Natalia Grace" Returns This January for the Final Chapter
"The Final Chapter" offers a conclusion to Natalia's story as she strives for healing and resolution in her tumultuous journey filled with decades of unexpected twists and turns.

[11/25/24 - 12:00 PM]
Matthew Broderick and Son James Wilkie Broderick to Guest Star on CBS' "Elsbeth" in 2025
This will be the first time the father and son share the screen together.

[11/25/24 - 11:00 AM]
Peacock's "Richard Ramirez: The Night Stalker Tapes" Exposes the Troubled Man Behind the Dark Myth Through Firsthand Recordings and Accounts from Some of the Women Who Knew Him Best
Collected from more than 25 hours of audio recordings - most of which have never been heard before - and including revealing interviews with his family, friends and wife, the series explores the dark forces that led Ramirez to become the infamous Night Stalker.

[11/25/24 - 10:32 AM]
Video: Tom Hanks Narrates an Extraordinary Journey - "The Americas" - NBC
Narrated by Academy Award winner Tom Hanks comes the extraordinary journey of Earth's great supercontinent.

[11/25/24 - 10:30 AM]
Epic Landmark Natural History Series "Asia" Set to Premiere Saturday, January 25 on BBC America and AMC+
Presented by renowned naturalist and three-time Emmy Award-winner Sir David Attenborough, the cinematic series explores each corner of this remarkable part of our planet and journeys through Asia's most stunning landscapes, uncovering stories of extraordinary unseen animal behavior.

[11/25/24 - 10:20 AM]
AMC Networks' Launches Inaugural "Celebrating Indigenous Stories" Collection on AMC+
Also included in the special collection, and as part of the company's "Future of Film" initiative, which partners with indie film festivals that feature emerging talent from historically excluded communities, is the company's first-ever "Indigenous Rising Stars" collection.

[11/25/24 - 09:02 AM]
MTV's "Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta" Rings in the New Year with All-New Episodes Starting Tuesday, January 7 at 8PM ET/PT
MTV today announced the return of the popular docuseries, bringing viewers more drama, music, and the personal stories that keep fans hooked.

[11/25/24 - 09:00 AM]
Final Season of "Blue Bloods" to Conclude on Friday, Dec. 13 with Two Remaining Episodes
Amanda Kloots and Edward James Olmos will guest star in the final installments.

[11/25/24 - 09:00 AM]
Video: Prime Video Releases the First-Look Teaser for "Beast Games" Competition Series
The series is set to debut weekly on Thursday, December 19 on Prime Video in more than 240 countries and territories worldwide.

[11/25/24 - 08:00 AM]
Legendary Artist, Actor, Producer, Author and Entrepreneur Queen Latifah to Host "The 47th Annual Kennedy Center Honors" to Be Broadcast Sunday, Dec. 22 on CBS
The Kennedy Center Honors recognizes and celebrates individuals whose unique contributions have shaped the way we see ourselves, each other and our world.

[11/25/24 - 07:16 AM]
Stream Max Today for 70% Off
This limited time deal is available now through Monday, December 2 for both new and returning subscribers on Max.com, Apple, Google Play, Roku, Samsung, and Xumo, and for new Max customers only on Amazon Fire TV.

[11/25/24 - 07:05 AM]
2024 Billboard Music Awards to Air on December 12 in First-of-Its-Kind Multi-Platform Viewing Experience Across FOX, Paramount+ and Amazon's Fire TV Channels
Hosted by actress and comedian Michelle Buteau, the 2024 BBMAs presented by Marriott Bonvoy airs on Thursday, December 12 at 8:00pm ET/PT on FOX and Fire TV Channels, and on-demand on Paramount+, with performances also rolling out across Billboard.com, and via BBMAs and Billboard social channels.

[11/25/24 - 07:01 AM]
Video: "Missing You" - Official Trailer - Netflix
What would you do if your ex disappeared and came back into your life after 11 years? Your next Harlan Coben New Year's Day watch is almost here.

[11/25/24 - 07:01 AM]
5&2 Studios Announces Theatrical Debut of "The Chosen: Last Supper" (Season 5) on March 27, 2025 and Unveils First Look Trailer
Later in 2025, the season will make its streaming debut.