or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[11/22/24 - 01:31 PM]
Video: "Suits LA" Arrives February 2025 - NBC
The all-new spinoff of the beloved legal drama, starring Stephen Amell, Lex Scott Davis, Josh McDermitt, and Bryan Greenberg, lands on the West Coast.

[11/22/24 - 12:11 PM]
Video: Peacock Releases First Look at the Third Season of Emmy Award-Winning Reality Competition Series "The Traitors" Returning January 9 with Alan Cumming as Host
Last season, "The Traitors" became the #1 unscripted series in the U.S. across all streaming platforms during launch week, according to Nielsen.

[11/22/24 - 10:15 AM]
Apple's Drama "Your Friends & Neighbors" Lands Early Season Two Renewal
Starring and executive produced by Emmy Award winner Jon Hamm, "Your Friends & Neighbors" will premiere globally on Apple TV+ on Friday, April 11 with two episodes, followed by one new episode weekly through Friday, May 30.

[11/22/24 - 09:01 AM]
Apple Original Films' "Fly Me to the Moon" to Premiere December 6, 2024
Since its debut in theaters worldwide, the film has received the Verified Hot certification on Rotten Tomatoes by fans.

[11/22/24 - 08:03 AM]
Peacock Exclusively Streams Blumhouse's "Speak No Evil" Beginning December 6
The psychological horror thriller stars James McAvoy, Mackenzie Davis, Aisling Franciosi, Alix West Lefler, Dan Hough, Scoot McNairy, and more!

[11/22/24 - 07:35 AM]
2024 "Emirates NBA Cup" Championship Game Exclusively on ABC and ESPN+ December 17
In addition, ESPN platforms will exclusively present a semifinal game and a quarterfinal game as part of its 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Knockout Round coverage.

[11/22/24 - 07:12 AM]
Peacock and Sky's Original Hit Drama Series "The Day of the Jackal" Scores Second Season Renewal
In the US it ranked #1 on Peacock's Top 10 TV Shows on its platform and was a Top 5 streaming original in the US for its opening weekend (according to preliminary Nielsen data).

[11/22/24 - 06:31 AM]
Video: "Chef's Table" Volume 7 - Official Teaser - Netflix
Meet five world-class chefs who redefine culinary boundaries with delicious, innovative dishes honoring their diverse cultures and personal philosophies.

[11/22/24 - 05:41 AM]
"They Call It Late Night with Jason Kelce" Set for January 2025 on ESPN
Airing on Friday nights/early Saturday mornings, the new personality-driven, one-hour program will take its inspiration from traditional late-night television, emphasizing a comedic approach throughout all five scheduled episodes which run in conjunction with the finale of the NFL regular season and playoffs.

[11/22/24 - 03:01 AM]
Video: "Ad Vitam" - Official Trailer - Netflix
After escaping an attempted murder, Franck Lazarev (Guillaume Canet) must find his wife Léo, who has been kidnapped by a mysterious group of armed men.

[11/21/24 - 04:01 PM]
"Rugged Rugby: Conquer or Die" Premieres December 10: A Battle for Supremacy Begins
In the shadows of Korea's rugby world, seven teams engage in a fierce battle of strength, strategy, and teamwork - all vying to be crowned champion.

[11/21/24 - 04:00 PM]
ABC Presents a Two-Night Special Event To Commemorate the Diamond Anniversary of "Mary Poppins"
First, "The Untold Story of Mary Poppins: A Special Edition of 20/20," a two-hour special from ABC News Studios chock full of rarely seen footage, photos and stories from the film's living legends, airs Wednesday, November 27 on ABC and streams next day on Hulu and Disney+.

[11/21/24 - 01:32 PM]
2024 International Emmy Nominees on Hulu
Check out these Emmy-worthy international series streaming on Hulu.

[11/21/24 - 01:12 PM]
"Dancing with the Stars" Semifinals Is Top Program of the Night in Adults 18-49 and All Key Women Demographics
The spectacular season 33 penultimate episode grew over the previous week's 500th episode celebration in both Total Viewers (5.19 million vs. 5.13 million) and Adults 18-49 (0.75 rating vs. 0.71 rating), hitting a season high in Total Viewers.

[11/21/24 - 01:05 PM]
NBC Orders Five Additional Episodes of Its Friday Night Comedy Hit "Happy's Place"
The "Happy's Place" premiere has hit 14 million viewers across all platforms.